The threat of global warming has been the ‘Cinderella’ area of US policy. But no more. President Obama has made it one of the priorities of his new administration. Reducing America’s carbon footprint is the challenge that the new President has set the country.

First in the firing line is the automotive industry. The White House’s ‘New Energy For America’ Plan calls for:

‘One million Plug In hybrid cars – cars that get up to 150 miles per gallon – on the road by 2015, cars that we will work to make sure are built here in America’.

Under the Bush Administration, California’s application to the federal Environmental Protection Agency (’EPA’) for permission to introduce stricter auto emissions standards was rejected three years ago. It would have meant a 30% reduction in auto emissions.

As a first step towards his goal, President Obama has asked the EPA to look at the application again. Its new Administrator, Lisa Jackson, issued a statement on 2^nd February 2009:

‘EPA believes that there are significant issues regarding the Agency’s denial of the waiver. The denial was a substantial departure from EPA’s longstanding interpretation of the Clean Air Act’s waiver provisions and the history of granting waivers to California for its new motor vehicle emission program’.

Thirteen other states also want to adopt California’s proposed standards, so California’s standard is likely to end up being the national one by default. Whilst the auto makers may be grumbling about the new emissions standards, the business plans submitted to Congress for bail out money show that they should be able to meet them.

And bail out money is the key. The ‘Big Three’ – General Motors, Ford and Chrysler – are all teetering precariously on the edge of bankruptcy. Toyota and Honda, both with manufacturing plants in the US, are both suffering from the massive drop in sales. Indeed, Toyota has posted its first loss in its history.

Green vehicles could be great business opportunity, kickstarting sales. So what have US makers got in store for drivers (bankruptcy not withstanding)?

Ford plan to start selling the 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid in Spring 2009. It’s a mid-size sedan, equivalent to the European Ford Mondeo, not the European mini-MPV of the same name. It uses a 2.4 litre, 156 horsepower gasoline engine mated to a 106 horsepower electric motor a la Toyota Prius. Developed from the system in the Escape SUV, this combination achieves class-leading urban fuel consumption of 41 mpg with 36mpg out of town. Ford claim that it can travel up to 47 miles per hour just on electric power alone.

The Fusion’s gasoline engine is also noteworthy. Most gasoline engines use the Otto cycle for combustion. The Fusion Hybrid uses the more unusual Atkinson cycle. The engine’s compression stroke is shorter than the power one. However, the trade off for greater efficiency is lower torque (pulling power). This is not a problem in a hybrid as the electric motor provides the low-end torque.

Over at General Motors, the Chevrolet Volt is due for release in 2010. It’s the first car to use GM’s new Voltec platform. Unlike the Fusion Hybrid, it’s a serial hybrid. This means that it relies mainly on power from its 53KW electric motor, which can be charged from the mains electricity. Its small gasoline engine is only there to power a generator to top up the battery pack on longer runs. It’s the same principle as used in diesel/electric locomotives. This gives the Volt a range of about 640 miles on a single tank of fuel.

Measuring miles per gallon figures is proving a problem. If tested like other hybrids, the Volt is likely to achieve over 100mpg. However, the EPA want to take the energy stored in the batteries into account as well, a method disputed by GM.

The Volt is likely to be an important car for the world, not just America. GM announced the Australian version of the Volt at the 2008 Sydney Motor Show. The European version, the Opel/Vauxhall Ampera, was unveiled at the Geneva Motor Show in March 2009. GM Europe is considering producing it at its Ellesmere Port plant in the UK.

But there are three problems with the Volt. Firstly, the production process for the Volt may not be that green. The battery packs are to be shipped in from South Korea (although GM wants to set up its own facility in Michigan) and the gasoline engines are likely to come, initially, from Austria.

Secondly, the Volt is likely to cost around $40 000. However, a proposed tax rebate of $7000 will lessen the impact.

Thirdly, GM relies for a lot of its platform development work on its Opel subsidiary. Shares in it are up for sale as cash-strapped GM tries to stay afloat. How much would a sale affect GM’s future product development?

It’s Chrysler, though, that looks most vulnerable, particularly since it ‘divorced’ Daimler-Benz. It’s shown various electric prototypes at motor shows, including a sports car that follows Tesla’s lead and is based on a Lotus. None of the prototypes are scheduled for production.

Chrysler have received a lifeline from Fiat. It’s agreed to buy 35% of the American company. Fiat benefits from Chrysler’s US distribution network whilst Chrysler gets access to Fiat’s distribution network outside America and, most importantly, its fuel efficiency technology. However, it’s going to be at least two years before Fiat platforms and technology can be incorporated into Chrysler products. Chrysler may be the first American auto maker to fail.

Can the US car makers meet President Obama’s global warming challenge? The answer is probably ‘yes’. But the real question is, ‘will they survive long enough to do so’?

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